The Dread Effanem Crusher: Pioneer Fashion Accessory

Ah, the Effanem (pronounced “F & M”) crusher. On the farms and hills of Whatcom County, baseball caps are de rigueur these days. Men, women, and children all wear them, but sixty years ago, county men and boys favored Effanem crushers, Maine hunting hats they are sometimes called, but I don’t see that Maine has any special claim to them.

Ball caps vs. the Effanem crusher

I used to wear a ball cap, but I’ve gone back to wearing an Effanem crusher most of the time. Rebecca, my wife, who I finagled into giving one to me for my birthday, doesn’t like it, and I imagine I get a few odd glances, but I don’t mind.

The Dread Effanem Crusher
The dread Effanem crusher hunting hat

To swing the deal, I had to compromise with Rebecca. The traditional color for a hunting hat is red. During the last flash of crusher popularity, blaze orange was common. The one I wear now is black, a compromise choice.

Red hats

The red hat was to ensure that hunters did not mistake your head for a deer, pheasant, or duck and blast away. Blaze orange was the same idea, raised a notch.

I was never much of a hunter, but I like a red hat. In the late 1960s, I hiked all over the North Cascades with my cousin Ed. He was a photographer and wannabe prospector who said mountain pictures always came out better when somebody wore red. I went along with him and wore a red hat.

In the 50s and 60s, you could buy a hunting hat at any sporting goods store in the county. I got my first from Ira Yeager’s store, which started in downtown Bellingham near the YMCA.

Angling for a crusher

Last fall, angling for a crusher as a birthday present from Rebecca, I checked out the availability at Yeager’s new store on the Northwest, which can’t have been located there much more than fifty years now. The girl in the clothing section was polite when I asked where I could find an Effanem crusher, but I could tell that she thought old geezers would be better off if they stayed home more.

Since this is 2020, I went online and found three sources for genuine Effanem crushers in red, blaze orange, hunter green, and black. One was a place in Maine that sells aged coyote urine with a Maine hunting hat sideline. I know Rebecca will never order anything from a place called Predator Pee Store, so I passed on it.

Johnson Woolen Mills sells the hats, but nobody owns up to manufacturing them. The obvious candidate, F & M Hat Co., looks genteel and probably shares Rebecca’s attitude toward the Predator Pee Store. Amazon sells them too. I took the easy way and put a red Effanem crusher on my Amazon wish list.

That’s how I got a black one.

Opening day

Now days, there’s not so much hunting in lowland Whatcom County. When I was a kid, the first day of hunting season was an occasion. Mom made me stay close to the yard and Dad avoided going into the woods more than he had to.

Dad always said the first couple days of hunting season were dangerous—early on, game was not as wary as they became after a few days of random gunfire. The easy hunting attracted less experienced and excitable hunters who didn’t know how to handle guns like the steady old hands. Getting a gun permit and hunting license sixty years ago was easier and cheaper than it is now. In the country, it seemed as if almost everyone had a gun of some sort around for shooting pests.

And, as I once overheard someone say, the first day of hunting season was as good a reason as any to get drunk. News of relatives and neighbors killed or wounded in hunting accidents was common.

Pothunters

You don’t hear the word pothunter often, but that is exactly what my grandparents and many of our neighbors were. They hunted for food, not sport. And they did not hunt like sportsmen, who, as their name implies, generally prefer to give game a sporting chance. To my practical grandpa, giving game any chance at all was a waste of time and ammunition.

According to my dad, Grandpa would watch deer carefully during the summer to get to know their habits and quirks, passing out samples from his garden to get them used to him. Toward fall, he would go out early in the morning, just before dawn, where he knew his nearly tame deer would pass, set out a spread of vegetable to get their attention, and wait. He had his rifle ready, a measly little twenty-two because the ammunition was cheap.

When a deer sampled the bait, he would shoot it in the head from close range with a single shot, no messing around. He could make one box of cartridges last several years. Dad said Grandpa took pride in quickly hanging and bleeding out the deer he shot to avoid the off taste of typical sportsman’s venison.

Dad also told me Grandpa didn’t pay much attention to hunting season. In those days, before my time, shooting a deer out of season for the smokehouse on your own farm was your business, nothing for the game warden or the sheriff to fret over. Whether it was the law or not, the season did not affect pothunters on their own land. You might as well try to tell them to thrash their grain or slaughter their hogs by the calendar instead of the weather. For a pioneer farmer, hunting season was nothing more than an annoyance that egged strangers on to trespass.

Times change

By the time I was around, that had all changed.

Throughout hunting season, we often heard shots in the distance and saw hunters wandering through the fields and woods. Today in pandemic 2020, we are in the midst of deer, upland game, and small game seasons. With the exception of regular booms from the trap shooters at the gun club down on the Larson Road, I have not heard shots or seen hunters this year.

I can’t say exactly when the hunters disappeared. I imagine there must still be a few around and there are deer all over, but with houses so close together now, shooting that was merely dangerous sixty years ago is now reckless.

The hunters I know today, cross the Cascades to eastern Washington, Idaho, and beyond to hunt. They hunt to fill their freezers, but with the cost of travel and all, venison is an expensive cut of meat. And, if you ask me, some of these sportsmen could take a lesson in butchering from my grandpa.

The CDC Triumph

In 2005, Republican President George W. Bush read a book on the 1918 flu pandemic. The potential devastation from a recurrence of that world-shaking catastrophe struck the president powerfully; he immediately insisted that his cabinet begin work on a pandemic response plan. The 9/11 trade towers attack sensitized Bush and his cabinet to the potential disruption of improbable but highly impactful events. Eventually, this would lead to a CDC triumph.

The CDC Triumph
The CDC triumph: the pandemic playbook

The CDC pandemic play book

Bush’s cabinet produced a nearly 400-page playbook detailing evaluation of dangers, limiting disease spread with travel bans and closures, marshaling critical supplies, managing adequate health care facilities, implementing social controls and practices, tracing contacts, the discovery, production and distribution of treatments and vaccines, best practices for avoiding panic and promoting compliance to healthcare measures. The playbook was tested and refined on Ebola, SARS, H1N1 and other infectious outbursts. The 2017 revision of this playbook still exists on a Center for Disease Control website.

Pandemic preparedness

The 2019 Global Health Security Index, a report produced by an international group of institutions, including Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security and The Economist magazine, ranked the U.S. number one among 195 nations in pandemic preparedness, largely on the basis of the playbook.

The week before the November 2020 general election, ten months later, the U.S. has almost 230,000 dead, roughly 70,000 more deaths than Brazil, the next hardest hit country. Brazil ranked 22 on the Global Health Security List. The United Kingdom, ranked 2 on the Global Health list has almost 50,000 dead. Columbia, ranked 65, has only 30,000 dead.

Preparedness results

The U.S. was the most prepared and it has had the worst results. The U.K. was second most prepared and their results are not good. Columbia gets a low B on preparedness and protects their people better. Angola is in the bottom segment of the list and has only 275 dead, far fewer than our own Washington State.

Looks like preparedness is overrated.

Think twice, grasshopper. That hop to a conclusion sailed clear off the dock. Preparation without execution is a wandering ghost: free floating intent with no consequence.

What in blazes is that supposed to mean?

Preparation without execution is null

Preparation does not matter if it is ignored. Read the CDC playbook. The plans were ignored and neglected. Protective gear was supposed to be stockpiled. Congress refused to allocate funds and the stockpiles were under supplied. The play book calls for extensive testing and includes guidelines on developing and deploying tests. The U.S. flubbed this badly at the beginning. The official test didn’t work, which was an unfortunate but recoverable misstep. But the U.S. did not follow its own plans to correct and recover. Over and over, the playbook was ignored. Testing is still below the plans in the playbook. I could go on. You can check it for yourself. The official 2019 playbook is here. The full implementation is here.

The playbook was ignored. Would the plans would have worked if they were followed?

The CDC playbook is not dead

Astoundingly, the plans developed by the CDC under Presidents Bush and Obama were followed and used. Just not by the U.S. I looked at two countries that have dodged the covid-19 bullet: Taiwan and New Zealand. Both have documents with nearly the same name as the U.S. playbook. Taiwan has its Pandemic Influenza Strategic Plan. New Zealand has its New Zealand Pandemic Influenza Plan.

The plans of the three countries are long detailed documents and I confess that I have not read them in their entirety, but I have read enough to convince myself that all three are the same plan, close enough that I would be surprised if there was not a lot of cribbing. I’ll be a U.S. chauvinist: I think New Zealand and Taiwan did most of the copying, but I don’t know that. The difference is that both Taiwan and New Zealand followed their plans, the U.S. did not.

The day after I wrote the above paragraph, I stumbled on this, a video report from the New York Times that makes the same point far better than I.

The CDC playbook test

Two countries that executed the playbook and one that wrote the book but did not execute the plan is as close to a gold standard test of a strategy as you can get.

Results

Now let’s see the results. Taiwan, population 23 million, 554 cases, 7 deaths, no new covid-19 cases in the last 200 days. New Zealand, population 5 million, 1950 cases, 25 deaths. U.S., population 328 million, 8,990,196 cases, 229,141 deaths on the Johns Hopkins COVID-19 Dashboard.

Compare apples to apples

That comes out to 24 cases/million for Taiwan, 390 cases/million for New Zealand, and 27,400 cases/million for the U.S.

If the U.S. had kept covid-19 in check like Taiwan, we would have under 8,000 cases. At New Zealand’s rate, 125,000, instead of close to 9 million. If we compare deaths, 100 at Taiwan’s death rate, 1600 at New Zealand’s death rate, instead of 230, 000 deaths in the U.S.

Covid-19 hoax

If we had followed our own playbook for a pandemic, we could have expected a few thousand deaths. Less than the estimated 22,000 flu deaths we had in 2019. Like Y2K, covid-19 would have been declared a hoax, not as bad as the flu.

The CDC triumph

There is a silver lining to this: the U.S. CDC playbook won. We didn’t use it, but it won. The scientists who wrote the playbook are still here. They have the same abilities they had under Presidents Bush and Obama. They are here for us to call on.

All we have to do is elect a government that will use our treasures to save us.

The Radicalization of America: Whatcom County

I read an article in the New York Times this evening “The Radicalization of a Small American Town.” Brian Groh, the author of the Times article, describes a microcosm of the radicalization of America, a small town in Indiana that has been devastated by the economy of the 21st century, wracked with pain and death of opioid addiction, crippled by the response to the covid-19 epidemic, and violently political.

Radicalization of America
Sunrise in Whatcom County

Instead of the friendliness, lack of pretension, and sense of decency Groh remembers from his youth, he recounts the story of a former neighbor who was recently threatened when he expressed a political opinion.

Groh laments the change.

Opioid crisis and the radicalization of America

It’s a good story, but I wonder if many of his neighbors would agree with his view. I looked at opioid death statistics in Indiana where statewide deaths per thousand are above the national average. The county in the article has one of the lowest rates in the state. We in Whatcom County are fortunate: although opioid and other drug deaths are still far too prevalent, some statistics show a slight decline in the opioid death rate in Whatcom County between 2002 and 2018.

We have a problem, but not a raging crisis. Thank heavens. Covid-19 is bad enough.

Rural Indiana

I’ve visited Mr. Groh’s rural Indiana. I’ve never lived there, but it felt like home as I listened to conversations among farmers at the tractor dealership where I was installing software. Both my Dutch and German ancestors spent a few decades in the Midwest before they made their final jump west to the edge of the Pacific Ocean. In rural Indiana, I felt like I could have been in Lynden or Ferndale.

What’s changed?

Groh’s experience does not match my experience in Whatcom County. I agree that the rural America I see today is not the place I saw when I was growing up. But the question is what changed? Did Whatcom County change? Or did I?

Well. I changed. I know that. I went off to college and graduate school.

What I learned

There, calculus taught me that differentiation and integration are mathematically two aspects of the same operation. In chemistry and physics, I learned that science can measure and predict the changes around us with greater precision than muddled impressions of undisciplined observation, but it continually refines and deepens understanding rather than lays down immutable laws.

At the age of nineteen, a mathematical logic class forced me to plumb the mysteries of the proof of Gödel’s theorem, which asserts that no matter how much you know, there will always be things you can’t fully understand. By twenty-one, I had learned to read classical Chinese and was forced to notice that the Athens-Jerusalem axis of western civilization has not been the only foundation for successful societies.

Then I realized that a humble farm boy had best quit straining the seams of his underpants. I came back home to work that out, but I was no longer the kid I was growing up and already I saw Whatcom County through changed eyes. But I also realized that my eyes had become exotic. I fret over Gödel’s theorem. My neighbors don’t.

Fifty years later

Fifty years later, I’m still working on that project. I see that my neighbors and relatives have many virtues. They are tough, self-confident, often happy. Some are prosperous, some think the prosperity they deserve has been withheld by forces they should control but can’t. Some are accomplished, many are stylish. A significant number are convinced that they have right on their side. I’m still the lout with manure on my boots that I was fifty years ago.

My experience is in the software business, which is like most businesses, as far as I can tell. You don’t last long in the software if you can’t spot who is likely to get the work done and who is likely to screw things up. I learned to stay away from loudmouths who succeed by refusing to pay their help, stiff their creditors, shift blame, and counter reason with bluster. They may succeed for a while, but eventually business caves in around them and everyone loses. That’s about as far as my politics go.

Doubling down

I also know it is easier to double down on a bad choice than it is to switch to a better choice. Switching to a choice that you once rejected is a humiliating struggle. I’ve been wrong often enough to know the sick feeling and bad taste that fouls my gorge when I recognize a misjudgment. I’ve faced it often enough; I don’t wish it on anyone.

When a bad choice is not all bad, the struggle is more painful. If a segment of the population prospered for three years while others struggled, the segment that thrived will not readily give up their gains. They will be proud of their sagacity. Those who look up to prosperity often throw their lot in with the prosperous even though they have reaped few benefits. Humans are not good at balancing long and short-term gains.

2020 vs 1960

In pandemic 2020, everyone is overstressed and close to anger. Add an atmosphere that promotes strife and tension over calm, and you have a community inclined toward violence.

But is the Whatcom County community fundamentally different from the same place sixty years ago? I say no. It was not ideal then and it is not ideal now. McCarthyism was still a topic sixty years ago. Racism was casually accepted among my parents and grandparents. Abusing native Americans acceptable behavior. The Ku Klux Klan flourished for a while in Whatcom County. Dig into the local newspaper archives and you soon run into language and propositions that might make you flinch.

Given today’s conditions, I think the county of my youth would have been inclined toward violence, perhaps more so than today. Although gun enthusiasts are vocal and prominent today, guns and ammunition were more easily available fifty years ago. Most country people had weapons for dealing with varmints and were ready to use them. More so than I see today.

Racism was more overt, mistreating the tribes was usual.

But serious violence never erupted. That’s important. Today, folks rant about antifa and the far right. As a kid, I overheard talk about threats from Bolsheviks, Wobblies, Fascists, Communists, and so forth, but it all turned out to be nervous fretting.

Is Whatcom County radicalized?

I don’t think so. No more today than fifty years ago. What I do see today, like fifty years ago, is a huge and quiet majority of concerned good people who want to live their lives in peace with their neighbors.

That hasn’t changed at all.