Optimistic Pessimism

Today, I expect the worst from the covid-19 pandemic and look for the best. Nearly a million and a half confirmed cases and ninety thousand dead, fourteen thousand dead in the United States, twenty dead in our own rural county. And more to come.

For whatever reason, our wealthy and sophisticated country is not responding well. We don’t seem to be able to organize ourselves. Shortages and gaps in medical supplies are appearing in the country that invented supply-chain management. Testing is faltering at the source of testing technology.

As a world leader, we are stumbling. What else can be said? The number of cases in the U. S. is more than double that of the country with the second highest count.

The only way we have to stop the deaths is to shut the country down, and we struggle to do it. Americans cherish their freedom and do not take kindly to interference. Some insist on their right to assembly when not assembling is to avoid the death for themselves, their loved ones, their neighbors, their countrymen. In the country that is of the people, by the people and for the people, the people cannot save themselves.

What do I see that is good in this? Yes, healthcare staff, nurses, and doctors are valiantly giving their lives to save the victims of the virus, but sacrifice is not bright hope. Volunteers distribute food to the distressed and help in many ways, and philanthropists donate billions, but this is only more sacrifice. The necessity of sacrifice drives me to despair, not hope.

Then what good do I see? Change. Change for the better paid for with staggering suffering and cost. Hundreds of thousands of good people forced to die alone with a tube jammed down their throat. Myriads of others who will survive with lame spirits and weakened bodies.

You may lament the shattering of the economy, but I see an economy that was already broken with unseen cracks. We were living in a condition that we now know humans cannot survive. The death toll from the virus testifies to this. If we lived differently, flew around in airplanes less, did not live in cities stacked in layers, looked out for our neighbors instead of competed with them, used computer networks, the mark of the new century, to protect ourselves from pestilence and bring us together instead letting them divide us, the emergence of the virus would have been a minor event. A temporary statistical variation that only epidemiologists and public health specialists would notice.

But the pandemic isn’t minor. It is a catastrophe because we have been doing it all wrong.

Now we know.

Will we have a better world when this is over? I think so. World War II was a horrible event, more destructive than the pandemic. After the war, many people were dead like today, but cities were also flattened, industrial facilities devastated, and resources destroyed.

Yet, the world that emerged from the war was more prosperous, more pleasant, more humane than ever existed before on the planet.

After the pandemic, we will have the dead to bury and grieve, but our resources and infrastructure will be intact, and we will have learned much about the weaknesses in our old ways. We will know new ways to work, to live, to cooperate.

Already, the network has been strengthened in just two months to support the new loads and will continue to get stronger. We’ve learned to get together electronically in ways that the virus can’t disrupt. And we will learn more. New ways to work and distribute goods. Our communities will be stronger and more resistant to stress.

Rebuilding will be rapid because we will have so much to rebuild with, and like the aftermath of the war, the world will improve in ways we do not yet comprehend.

Marlowe in Troubled Times

Last week, I read Raymond Chandler’s fourth novel, The Lady in the Lake. Like most places now, Ferndale schools had closed, the library doors were locked, businesses had shut down, public gatherings were cancelled. Health department notices were pleading that we all to stay home, wash our hands, and stop touching our faces, which felt feeble in the face of death counts that cry out for revenge, not social nicety.

Government tests for the disease were failing and supplies like face masks and ventilators were running low with little hope of replenishment. The cage of frustration and rage snapped shut, and I fought despair. Hoping for diversion, I reached out for a worn book on my Chandler shelf. I began to read The Lady.

The diversion succeeded, but I also found insight and solace from an old novel I have read many times.

Background

Chandler was born in Chicago. His Irish mother had a sister in Plattsmouth, south of Omaha, Nebraska. The Chandler family lived there in the summers. Chandler’s construction engineer father was an alcoholic who traveled often and eventually did not return, abandoning his wife and twelve-year-old child. Chandler’s mother returned them to Britain, and, with the grudging help of relatives, enrolled the boy in Dulwich College, a London Public School that delivered a classic Edwardian education to the likes of Chandler, P.G. Wodehouse, and C.S. Forester, who each went on to please the ears of twentieth century popular literature readers.

Rather than go on to university, Chandler took the civil service examination. He placed near the top of six hundred candidates and entered the civil service. To the consternation of his grandmother and uncles who had paid for Chandler’s schooling, he left the service after less than a year to become a newspaper reporter and freelance essayist and poet. He failed at that for five years, then gave it up. He borrowed five hundred pounds, at interest, from a reluctant and stingy uncle, then embarked for Los Angeles. There, he took an assortment of temporary jobs, studied bookkeeping in night school, and eventually became an accountant at a creamery.

When World War I broke out, Chandler, a British subject, went north to Vancouver, Canada and enlisted in the Canadian infantry. When the war ended, he returned to the U. S. and was swept up in the Los Angeles oil boom. He became an oil executive. He met Cissy Pascal, a married woman and artist’s model eighteen years his senior.

Soon after, Chandler and Cissy began an affair and she quickly divorced her husband. Chandler paid for Cissy’s board, apartment, and wardrobe for several years. When his mother died, he married Cissy, worshiping her while pursuing younger women until she died in 1954. Chandler mentioned in his letters that Cissy preferred to do her housekeeping without the constraint of clothing.

In 1932, Chandler was fired for drunkenness, absenteeism, and affairs with his secretaries. He returned to his first career, writing. To learn his craft, he studied Erle Stanley Gardner’s stories and novels, outlining Gardner’s works, writing his own version, and comparing his versions with Gardner’s. Pulp magazines like Black Mask, where the hardboiled detective story was born and evolved, began to accept his work. In 1939, Chandler published his first novel, The Big Sleep.

The Lady in the Lake was written between 1938 and 1943. These dates are key to understanding of the novel. The U.S. was late in entering World War II. Canada, for whom Chandler had served in WW I, declared war on Germany in 1939 along with Britain. The bombing of London began in 1940. The house Chandler lived in with his mother, aunt, and grandmother while attending Dulwich was destroyed in the bombing.

By the time the U. S. declared war in late 1941, Chandler must have been frantic. In 1943, when The Lady in the Lake was published, Hitler and Japan were still expanding their territory. D-Day and the Normandy invasion was two years away. Men were being drafted; women labored at war time jobs in ways they never had before. WACs, WAVEs, and Rosy the Riveter were ascendant.

In retrospect, Americans think of World War II as a heroic upswell of patriotism, but that is in nostalgic hindsight. A number of popular figures like Charles Lindberg and Henry Ford, favored Hitler’s Germany, not the British and French losers.

The vote in congress for hostilities against Germany was unanimous, but until the Germans openly declared war on us, unanimity was uncertain. Congress did not move on Hitler until, provoked by our declaration of war on Japan after Pearl Harbor, Germany declared war on the U.S. After we entered the conflict, the country remained awash in uncertainty over events and changes to come, much like we are caught today in the COVID-19 pandemic. The fear of the future did not dissipate until success became clear after D-Day in 1944.

In the midst of this turmoil, Chandler wrote The Lady in the Lake.

Plot

The hardboiled detective novel differed in many ways from the products of the “Golden Age of Mysteries.” The Golden Age authors— Dorothy Sayers, Agatha Christie, Josephine Tey, to name a few— wrote novels that were more genteel than hardboiled. American detectives were often down-and-out, frequently loners, and seldom polished gentlemen like Sayers’ Lord Peter Wimsey or Christie’s Hercule Poirot. But that was not the only difference.

Golden Age plots are dramatized puzzles and tests of wit. The best are well-dramatized and while reading them, we feel much more than the simple challenge of out-witting the detective, but at the core of these plots, they are puzzles. Catch the criminal, solve the puzzle, and end the chaos; that is the story. Skip unmasking the criminal and the story is gone.

Contrast this to the death of the chauffeur in Chandler’s The Big Sleep. Humphrey Bogart and Lauren Bacall starred in the movie directed by Howard Hawkes, which is one of the best hardboiled detective movies ever made. But while preparing the screenplay, the writers could not figure out who killed the chauffeur. They called Chandler. He didn’t know, he never cared. So much for the well-wrought puzzle.

Chandler’s plots are studies in motivation and psychology, not puzzles. The Lady in the Lake has four murders, two murderers, and one accidental death. Each murder and death leads to the next as corruption and violence surges to its final end. Private detective Marlowe protects his client from the mayhem. He has no time or energy for puzzles.

When I read The Lady in the Lake last week, I was struck by something I had noticed before, but not understood: the role of the impending war in the plot.

The war intrudes and sets the atmosphere in the first paragraph of the novel:

The Treloar Building was, and is, on Olive Street, near Sixth, on the west side. The sidewalk in front of it had been built of black and white rubber blocks. They were taking them up now to give to the government, and a hatless pale man with a face like a building superintendent was watching the work and looking as if it was breaking his heart.

When I read this, I thought of a restaurant on Main Street in Ferndale where I live. It closed this week. My wife and I went there often, meeting with friends and enjoying memorable meals. We wonder if it will open again. When the war was over, rubber block sidewalks were never restored, as the hatless pale man feared.

Subtle effects of the overseas conflict appear throughout The Lady in the Lake. Service is poor because a clerk has been drafted. Resort crowds, reminiscent of current reports from the beaches of Fort Lauderdale, are nervous, frantic. They may never return to this pleasure spot again. The reader is uneasy, uncertain, threatened by something outside the plot that is never given a concrete form, but looms nevertheless.

The war is also present at the end of the book.

Here are the final four paragraphs of the novel that describe a fugitive racing over a dam above Los Angeles, a dam under military surveillance and control, guarding against sabotage that endangered Los Angeles.

“Guy didn’t stop for the sentry,” the sergeant said, and there was bitterness in his voice. “Damn near knocked him off the road. The sentry in the middle of the of the bridge had to jump fast to get missed. The one at this end had enough. He called the guy to halt. Guy kept going.”

The sergeant chewed his gum and looked down into the canyon.

“Orders are to shoot in a case like that,” he said. “The sentry shot.” He pointed to the grooves in the shoulder at the edge of the drop. “This is where he went off.”

A hundred feet down the canyon a small coupe was smashed against the side of a huge granite boulder. It was almost upside down, leaning a little. There were three men down there. They had moved the car enough to lift something out.

Something that had been a man.

This reminds me of a Yukio Mishima novel that ends when the protagonist knowingly drinks poison placed in his tea cup by a disciple. Inevitable, unavoidable, and bitter.

Without army sentries guarding the dam, the fugitive would have escaped. The story leaves no doubt of the fugitive’s guilt, but the war forced unseeing and brutal justice. Orders were executed without knowledge or empathy. We fear this rough justice. Today, doctors must soon decide who will get a life-saving ventilator and who will die gasping for air. In Marlowe’s time, it was the sentry’s trigger.

Yet, in The Lady in the Lake, Marlowe and Chandler faced and endured the war, protecting the innocent and facing the corrupt.

The guilty suffered and Marlowe’s integrity and resolve protected his client, which is the ultimate redeeming message from The Lady.


 

How Will the Pandemic Feel?

Today, I am trying to grapple with how the COVID-19 pandemic will feel here in Ferndale. The schools and the public libraries are closing. The stock market is thrashing. But the sun shining. It’s a loser’s game because predicting the future has never worked out well for me, but I keep trying.

People are confused by large numbers. I see this when I talk to people about computer security and I see confusion in the way people talk and react to COVID-19. And I feel it in myself when I look at the numbers on the Johns Hopkins dashboard. Hoard toilet paper? You gotta do something. Right?

No. Calm down.

Look at the coronavirus numbers. They are terrifying. I’m looking at 162,687 confirmed cases and 6,065 deaths. 3,244 cases in the U.S., 40 deaths in Washington State. By the time anyone reads this, those numbers will almost certainly be much higher. They grew in the hour I took writing this. The president has called a national emergency. The administration, congress, states, cities, and local health departments appear to be struggling to respond.

To get a sense of perspective, I have turned to the Spanish flu pandemic of 1919, a century ago. Spanish flu is a misnomer. No one knows where it came from. Xenophobia is nothing new.

Remember that in 1919, DNA and genetic sequencing were unknown concepts, penicillin was 20 years in the future; scientists would not discover that the flu was caused by a virus until the 1930s. They were guessing at how the disease moved from person to person. Although epidemiologists today don’t have all the details on COVID-19, we know so much more than we did in 1918 when the Spanish flu first appeared in the U.S. Vaccines and medicines to control and treat COVID-19 are not available yet, but the tools scientists have today to develop these remedies would not exist for 90 years after the Spanish flu appeared.

We are in a world’s better position to respond to COVID-19 than Spanish flu. When it appeared, the Brits were still launching cavalry charges. It’s no stretch to say that the 1919 pandemic response compared to the science of 2020 epidemiology in like matching a horse charge against a squad of Humvees backed by drones. A different world. That is not to say COVID-19 will be a walk in the park, but the 1919 pandemic is a worst-case, not an inevitable reality. It tells us about what could happen if we ignore the science.

What did happen in 1918-1919? The Spanish flu was first detected in the U.S. in March of 1919. By the spring of 1919, a little over a year later, April 1919, President Woodrow Wilson collapsed at the Versailles Peace Conference, presumably from the flu. He recovered but 675,000 American died in the pandemic. That’s roughly 600 per 100,000 people.

To put this in a local perspective, if the 1919 pandemic were repeated, roughly a hundred people would die in the small city of Ferndale. That’s highly unlikely to happen, but it would mean the current death rate in the U.S. would a little less than double.

Think about how that would feel. I’m old, over 70. Three people close to me have died in the past few years: a cousin and two close friends. All in the demographic most likely to die from COVID-19. I don’t think that is out of line for most people my age. How would I feel if that number doubled? Sad, of course. But terrified? No. I have many, many cherished relatives and friends. It’s the ones who survive that count.

We are likely to be in for a tough time ahead, but only a few will be taken down. Hold on tight folks. Keep your social distance. We now know that will blunt the force of the disease. It’s going to be okay.

And quit hoarding toilet paper.